Total Pageviews

Thursday, January 06, 2011

The New Arms Race

















Pictured is the Chinese J-20, which together with the Russian T-50 will pose a significant threat to Western Air Superiority within the next three to four years. Sources claim that the Chinese will not have their J-20 ready for another eight years at least, but taking into account the Chinese ability to manufacture and their current wealth as well as their friendship with Russia I suspect it will be much sooner. The West has also made a habit of downplaying the abilities of the East for many decades and are usually proven wrong. The Chinese are not idiots.

One would have to assume that the abilities of the J-20 would be at a par with the US F-22 Raptor because if it was not why even build it? It might even be better and taken the history of Chinese military thinking they will probably outnumber the US equivalent by a reasonable margin within a year or two of becoming operational. The history of Chinese - Russian combined military exercises would also suggest that in future these two countries would together constitute an unstoppable force in a possible future war.

Modern warfare relies on aerial dominance to gain the high ground and battlefield overlook ability to dominate the battlefield. The possible loss of air superiority by the West would translate into a catastrophic vulnerability on their part. The other issue becoming apparent is the realisation by the Chinese that American force is projected by their aircraft carriers and thus have developed an ASBM (Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile), which poses a significant threat to American force projection and morale. The sinking of an American aircraft carrier would destroy Western morale helped by the careless Western media.

Whatever happens, the USA and the West will probably lose military dominance over the next couple of years. One can only hope that the threat of Mutually-Assured Destruction (MAD) created by the presence of nuclear weapons and the realisation that future wars can probably not be won will safeguard humanity. Hopefully when people start to realise this they will start looking for other solutions such as Invincible Defence Technology.

8 comments:

JAD said...

Part 2
Second, it's unlikely that the Chinese are yet capable of matching the US's experience and expertise in systems design and integration. The F-22 is a technological marvel in terms of the power of its onboard systems and the sophistication of the total package. Again, China's only recent experience in this area has been the J-10, which although not a bad aircraft was inferior in its systems to even aircraft like the SA Air Force's new Gripens. While I have no doubt that they have advanced significantly, one does not make up that sort of a gap that quickly.

The Chinese are not idiots, but neither are the Americans. The US has been watching China very closely for a long time and it's hardly sitting idle.

Thirdly, a grand alliance between Russia and China is unlikely, for the simple fact that neither country can find any reason to trust the other. Russia, with its shrinking population, remains extremely wary about China's designs on its resources-rich regions, for one.

Fourthly, so-called 'carrier-killers' are without any doubt a threat, but it's not something that the US Navy has not prepared for. There's a reason that each and every US carrier is deployed with such a sophisticated set of air defence ships acting as an outer shield and the Pentagon pumps billions of dollars into technologies designed to counter-act Chinese developments in this area. They may or may not succeed, but in the event of war it will not quite be as simple as a US carrier definitely going down. We also can't forget that they have no less than 11 full Carrier Battle Groups.

The US will not remain the world's most dominant military power forever, but its demise is neither as near nor as obvious as it would seem.

Lastly, I have to admit that I regard IDT as being on par with homeopathy and astrology, but you're welcome to your opinion on it. I ask only that, as a senior South African Army officer, you do not allow your beliefs and hopes for IDT to prevent you from making completely rational assessments of future threats and trends in the military and political spheres, because they have profound implications for South Africa and its defence posture. This isn't intended as an insult, for what it's worth; for all I know you may actually be right about IDT, but like all such beliefs it is necessarily faith-based and cannot be the basis of defence policy.

JAD said...

Part 2
Second, it's unlikely that the Chinese are yet capable of matching the US's experience and expertise in systems design and integration. The F-22 is a technological marvel in terms of the power of its onboard systems and the sophistication of the total package. Again, China's only recent experience in this area has been the J-10, which although not a bad aircraft was inferior in its systems to even aircraft like the SA Air Force's new Gripens. While I have no doubt that they have advanced significantly, one does not make up that sort of a gap that quickly.

The Chinese are not idiots, but neither are the Americans. The US has been watching China very closely for a long time and it's hardly sitting idle.

Thirdly, a grand alliance between Russia and China is unlikely, for the simple fact that neither country can find any reason to trust the other. Russia, with its shrinking population, remains extremely wary about China's designs on its resources-rich regions, for one.

Fourthly, so-called 'carrier-killers' are without any doubt a threat, but it's not something that the US Navy has not prepared for. There's a reason that each and every US carrier is deployed with such a sophisticated set of air defence ships acting as an outer shield and the Pentagon pumps billions of dollars into technologies designed to counter-act Chinese developments in this area. They may or may not succeed, but in the event of war it will not quite be as simple as a US carrier definitely going down. We also can't forget that they have no less than 11 full Carrier Battle Groups.

The US will not remain the world's most dominant military power forever, but its demise is neither as near nor as obvious as it would seem.

(continued in next comment)

JAD said...

Part 3
Lastly, I have to admit that I regard IDT as being on par with homeopathy and astrology, but you're welcome to your opinion on it. I ask only that, as a senior South African Army officer, you do not allow your beliefs and hopes for IDT to prevent you from making completely rational assessments of future threats and trends in the military and political spheres, because they have profound implications for South Africa and its defence posture. This isn't intended as an insult, for what it's worth; for all I know you may actually be right about IDT, but like all such beliefs it is necessarily faith-based and cannot be the basis of defence policy.

JAD said...

My apologies for the messed up comment posting. Blogger's comment engine wasn't playing nice today.

Werner K said...

Part 1

Hi, JAD.

You could be right, it may be unlikely that the Chinese are yet capable of meeting American system design and integration, but they will get there. That's why I gave them at least a couple of years. Even if they do not have the know-how they have the money and somebody somewhere will have it or at least part of it. Remember, even the US got its rocket technology from a Nazi in Werner von Braun.

The F-22 is very expensive and relies on a technology that can be beaten bmo the use of a wide spectrum radar-wave network so what will matter is the ability of the aircraft to perform in a dogfight, which is why the British have concentrated on a building the Typhoon, which may be the best dogfighter in the world.

Yes, the Americans are not idiots, but with a population far in excess of that of the USA it is reasonable to assume there are many more geniuses in China. With globalisation significantly closing the scientific gap, if not now in the future the Chinese will surpass us all. Also remember that the US education system is rated 24th in the world.

The Chinese and Russia (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) had a large-scale exercise a couple of years ago that had NATO sitting up and taking notice. It does not have to be a grand alliance. If they can launch one well-coordinated attack against the West we are screwed. Anyway, what does trust have to do with it? America's allies do not trust her as proven in the types of things said in the recent documents released by Wikileaks.

In theory 11 Carrier battle groups equals eleven carriers equals 11 ASBM's. Just by destroying three carriers they will make the kind of impression that will destroy Western Morale and then more countries will join in against the USA and the West as it will become obvious that the USA is not the powerhouse she thinks she is. The USA's inability to win the insurgency war in Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and Vietnam to name but a few has already given many countries the belief that the West can be beaten. Furthermore, read my post about the New Information War. The face of war is changing my friend.

Werner K said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Werner K said...

Part 2

In theory 11 Carrier battle groups equals eleven carriers equals 11 ASBM's. Just by destroying three carriers they will make the kind of impression that will destroy Western Morale and then more countries will join in against the USA and the West as it will become obvious that the USA is not the powerhouse she thinks she is. The USA's inability to win the insurgency war in Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and Vietnam to name but a few has already given many countries the belief that the West can be beaten. Furthermore, read my post about the New Information War. The face of war is changing my friend.

We agree on one thing. The US will by no means remain the world's dominant power forever, but nobody knows when that will change. A clue might be the Roman Empire to which the USA is compared. The Roman Empire fell from the inside just like the USA has been decaying since post-Kennedy. Do some serious soul-searching and you will find that the USA is not the glorious nation she imagines herself to be. Your Founding Fathers (for who I have a lot of respect) are probably turning in their graves at seeing what the USA has become. And even if I am wrong, trust me, you are losing the information war. Again, I hope I am wrong.

Lastly, JAD. I hope I am right about IDT because it will change the world and that is what we all want. A world that is not just safe for some, but for all. IDT may not be the answer, but there is no challenging the effect called "The Maharishi Effect" as it has been proven to exist. Even if you change the name it still exists. At one stage nobody suspected there was something like nuclear power and Einstein unlocked it for us with his Special Theory on Relativity. If the power of the Unified Field can be harnessed it will solve so many problems.

Lastly, South Africa does not involve herself in wars, but the word "Commando" is of South African origin and was taken from the Boers of the Anglo-Boer War who gave England a bloody nose in many battles. Even to this day the word commando is indicative of a special breed of soldier. Trust me, if we are attacked we will give any attacker a very hard run for his money.

South Africa's 2nd Squadron better known as the Flying Cheetahs fought alongside the US in Korea and are the only unit in history outside of the USA to receive a Presidential Unit Citation. Even to this day the 18th Fighter-Bomber Wing in the USA plays the first few bars of the SA National Anthem at the beginning of its unit song.

South Africa will be fine in any future war, but I am gladdened by your obvious concern about my country being led astray by officers like me.

Werner K said...

Sorry, I also struggled with getting my reply posted properly.